Will Japan Ever Have a Military Again
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This was published 8 years ago
Cypher to fearfulness now that Japan is rising again
Stability in the region rests on the quondam military power regaining its independence.
Past Hugh White
Japan has a problem. It feels more and more threatened past Communist china'southward growing ability and ambitions, and less confident of America'due south protection. But whatsoever footstep to bolster its own defence is immediately suspected, even by its closest friends, of reviving the militarism that led to war in the 1930s and 1940s. What is Nihon to practise?
Worries about militarism have spiked since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did so well in Japan's recent upper-house elections. He is now in a stronger position than any Japanese leader for a decade. Abe has long wanted to strengthen Japan's strategic weight and reach. He is expanding Japan'southward military capabilities and looking for strategic support amidst its neighbours, while taking a difficult line confronting Cathay. And he now has the Nutrition numbers for a bid to change Japan's pacifist constitution.
Japan PM Shinzo Abe. Credit:AP
On peak of all this, leading political figures keep saying provocative and foolish things that remind everyone that Japan's history in the first one-half of the terminal century remains a deeply contested topic within Japan itself, potently symbolised by the Yasukuni Shrine to Japan's state of war dead.
So it'due south maybe not surprising that people wonder where Nihon is heading. Only earlier getting too anxious, we should ask a few simple questions. What exactly are we scared of from Japan? What credit does Nippon deserve for its post-war record? How are we to sympathize Nippon's ''history'' questions? And perhaps hardest of all - what practise nosotros think Japan should practise?
Showtime, what are we scared of? When Japan launched its wars of conquest it was by far Asia'due south most powerful nation, with the region'south only developed economy and modern armed forces. Mainland china, especially, was prostrate after decades of Western intervention and domestic upheaval.
Today Japan is again a very potent country, but at present its neighbours are very strong, too. Above all, China is already both richer and more powerful than Nippon, and its margin will abound. Militarily China today has the naval and air forces to terminate Japan projecting power around Asia, and land forces that brand it unthinkable that Japan could ever again occupy any function of the Asian continent that China chose to protect. Plus, of course, it has nuclear weapons.
All this means there is no way that Nippon will take the economic and military capacity to return to the policies of the 1930s and 1940s. It could look later itself, but it is simply not strong plenty to pose whatsoever serious threat to its powerful neighbours in Asia, even if it chose to return to the path of militarism.
2d, why would anyone recollect Japan might want to do such a thing? There is absolutely no evidence that anyone serious in Japan has any ideas of armed aggression, territorial expansion or regional hegemony. The only reason to suspect Nippon today of such ambitions is its record 70 years agone and more.
Merely what of its record since? Later on 1945 Japan has been an irreproachable member of the international community, a champion of order and stability, and an advocate for peace. I might remember this record would earn Nippon some leeway - at least enough for it to expect to its own security without being suspected of aggressive intentions. Every other land is immune that much, afterwards all. Why non Nippon?
The reason, of form, is the vexed question of Japanese attitudes to their militarist past. The vast bulk of Japanese utterly condemn what Nihon did in Asia before 1945, only many also run across some other side to the story. There is a view that Japan's comport can be explained, even if not excused or justified, by its handling at the hands of the West over many decades.
This view tin can exist contested, but it cannot be merely dismissed because the reality is very complicated. This is 1 reason why Japan'due south ideas most the war are so different from Federal republic of germany's. Indeed nosotros, the victors, acknowledged something of this difference when nosotros allowed Nihon's Emperor to retain his throne after the war.
This does not make the remarks past Japanese leaders about problems such as ''comfort women'' any less foolish or any less unconscionable. But it should assistance united states of america see that they are symptoms of deeper unresolved issues about Nihon'southward history which it is probably best for we outsiders to stand back and allow the Japanese resolve among themselves.
And it should help us to meet that everyone would be better off if difficult questions about Japan'due south past can be separated from equally difficult, and ultimately much more urgent, questions about its time to come. Considering Nihon really does have a large strategic trouble.
Everyone can run into that as Communist china grows stronger information technology is becoming more and more willing to push Nihon around. And everyone should come across that Nippon has a perfect right to protect itself from bullying and intimidation. And no one should doubt that the fourth dimension has passed when America can shield Nippon from China.
Indeed, much as Japan would like to proceed relying on America for protection from China, that has now get not simply impracticable but dangerous - both for Nippon and for the rest of us. We tin can see in the Senkakus dispute how Nihon-China tensions threaten to embroil America. This not only makes the dispute itself harder to manage just also risks a major US-China war, which would be a disaster for everyone.
And so those who come across a more than independent Japanese strategic posture as threatening the security of Asia have information technology exactly wrong. It is Nihon'southward dependence on a relatively weaker US against a relatively much stronger China that poses the real risk to Asia's security. We would all exist safer if Nippon stands on its own two feet, as a ''normal'' land and a great power in Asia again.
Hugh White is professor of strategic studies at the Australian National Academy.
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Source: https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/nothing-to-fear-now-that-japan-is-rising-again-20130805-2ra2y.html